Bitcoin (BTC), which plunged below $40,000 on February 4, has been trading below that level all weekend.
Despite volatility in crypto prices over the last few days, Glassnode data indicates that institutional investors have been steadily accumulating Bitcoin through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares (GBTC), since December 2021.
Another positive sign is that fund managers are not panicking and selling their holdings in GBTC. This could indicate that fund managers are likely to be bullish for the long-term and are therefore enduring the short-term pain.
Daily view of crypto market data. Source:Coin360
Bloomberg Intelligence reported on March 4th that Bitcoin could remain under pressure if U.S. stock market falls, but they anticipate crypto to rise eventually. If the stock market recovers, Bitcoin could “rise with a greater velocity”, if past patterns continue.
Although the crypto market is facing severe headwinds, some altcoins are showing signs that they are starting to show signs of life. Let’s look at the charts of top five cryptocurrencies that could see a rebound in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin fell below its moving averages on March 4, indicating that bears are trying to get the upper hand. Bulls attempted to trap aggressive bears by pushing Bitcoin back above the moving averages of March 5 and 6, but failed.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView
If the price remains below the moving averages the bears will attempt to pull the BTC/USDT pairs to the support line in the ascending channel. This level will be defended aggressively by the bulls. The bulls could extend their stay within the channel for a few days if they see a strong rebound from this support.
If the price rises from its current level or breaks above the 20-day exponentially moving average ($40474), this short-term bearish outlook will be invalidated. This will signal strong buying at lower levels. The bulls will attempt to push the price towards the resistance line. After the pair breaks below or above the channel, the next trending move will likely be made.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. TradingView
The 20-EMA has turned down on the 4-hour chart and the relative strength indicator (RSI) remains in the negative zone. This indicates that bears hold the upper hand. The pair could fall to $37,000 if the price drops below $38,000 and then drop to $35,000.
Contrary to popular belief, a rise in the price above the current level will indicate strong buying at lower levels. If the pair closes above 50-simple moving mean, the bullish momentum may pick up. This could lead to a rally up to $45,000
For the past few days, Ripple (XRP), has attempted to move above the downtrend line but the bears have held firm. The bulls are trying to defend their 50-day SMA ($0.72), which is a minor plus.
Daily chart of XRP/USDT Source: TradingView
The bulls have no advantage over the bears due to flattish moving averages. The momentum could pick up if bulls push the price higher than the downtrend line and the XRP/USDT exchange pair could rise to $0.91.
If the price breaks and closes above this level, it could open the way for a retest at $1 of psychological resistance. If the price falls below $0.69, it could indicate that bears have taken control. This could lead to a drop in the pair to $0.62
XRP/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the pair is currently range bound between $0.80- $0.70. The overhead resistance of $0.80 could be challenged if buyers push the price higher than the downtrend line. Bulls could win if the price breaks and closes above this level. The pair could climb first to $0.85, then to $0.91.
Contrary to popular belief, if the price falls below the moving averages it will indicate that bears are selling rallies. The price could drop to $0.70. The selling could accelerate if this level is breached and the pair could fall to $0.62.
NEAR Protocol (NEAR), is sandwiched between moving averages over the past few days. This indicates that bulls are buying dips to 20-day EMA ($10) while bears are selling rallies to 50-day SMA ($11).
Daily chart NEAR/USDT Source: TradingView
The RSI is close to the midpoint, and the 20-day EMA appears flattened. This indicates that there is an equilibrium between bulls and bears. The bulls will be back if the price rises above the current level and breaks through $12. The NEAR/USDT currency pair could rally to $14, where it might again face strong resistance from bears.
Contrary to the assumption, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA and continues to fall, it will indicate that the bears have the upperhand. The pair could drop to $8, which is the strong support.
NEAR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bullish momentum was evident after the pair broke above the downtrend line, but resistance is strong at $12. Although the bears drove the price below 20 EMA, the bulls managed to hold the 50-SMA.
Bulls will attempt to overcome the $12 overhead hurdle if buyers continue pushing the price higher than the 20-EMA. If the price falls below the 50 SMA, selling could increase and the pair could fall to $9.50.
Related: Bitcoin headed to 36K Analysis amid warning global stocks “look expensive”
Monero (XMR), has been correcting within a descending channel over the past few weeks. Bulls are trying to create a base pattern by buying dips below $134.
Daily chart of XMR/USDT Source: TradingView
The consolidation has been between $134 to $188 over the past few days. The 20-day EMA ($164), has fallen and the RSI is near the midpoint. This indicates a balance between supply/demand.
If buyers push for a price increase above $188, this equilibrium will shift in their favor. This will complete the double bottom pattern with a target of $242. The rally will not be easy, however, as bears are expected mount strong defense at resistance line.
Contrary to the assumption, if the price falls below $155, bears will try to pull the XMR/USDT pairs to $134.
XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the bulls pushing the price higher than the downtrend line but not being able to sustain it. This shows that the bears are aggressively protecting this level. The moving averages have been flattening and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This indicates a balance between supply/demand.
The bears could win the short-term trend if the price falls below $155. A close above the downtrendline could increase the chances of a rise to $188 overhead resistance.
Waves (WAVES), which formed a double bottom at $8, rallied sharply up to $21. The bullish crossover of the moving averages and the RSI has reached the overbought zone indicates that bulls are in control.
Daily chart WAVES/USDT TradingView
Although bears pose a challenge at $20, it is encouraging that bulls are not giving up any ground. It will indicate that bulls are buying dips if the price rises from its current level. This will increase the likelihood of a retest at $21.
Bulls pushing and maintaining the price above $21 could give rise to momentum for the WAVES/USDT pairing and lead to a rally towards $24 and then $27. If bears pull back and keep the pair below $16, this positive view will be invalidated in the short-term.
WAVES/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows how the correction of $21 brought the RSI down from overbought levels to below the midpoint. Bulls bought the dip below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $16 and have pushed it back above the 20 EMA.
If the price remains above the 20-EMA the bulls will try to push the pair past the $21 overhead resistance.
This assumption is incorrect. If the price drops from its current level and falls below the moving averages it could indicate that short-term traders are rushing to exit. This could bring the pair down to $14, and then $13.
You should research all aspects of trading and investment before making any decision.
Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.