Bitcoin (BTC), which lost ground on Saturday, as investors remain cautious regarding the release of July 13th’s consumer inflation data from the United States. Analysts expect June’s consumer price index will be higher than May’s 8.6%.
Investors aren’t confident that Bitcoin’s correction will be over due to macro uncertainty. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ global macro director, stated that Bitcoin has returned to 2013 bull market levels “if it is valued at the price per million of non-zero addresses”. This means that Bitcoin is “cheap.”
Daily view of crypto market data. Source:Coin360
In July, the readings of the Reserve Risk indicator (which measures long-term sentiment) plunged to an all-time low. Murad, a commentator, said that this indicated that the indicator could be broken or we are near the bottom of the timeframe.
Is Bitcoin likely to turn the corner and begin a new rally, or will it remain lower? Is altcoins beginning to show signs of bottoming? Let’s look at the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies to see if they are.
Bitcoin broke above the symmetrical triangular pattern on July 7, but the bulls couldn’t sustain momentum at higher levels. This indicates that the bears are not giving up and trying to defend $23,363 overhead resistance.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView
The bears want to keep the price below the 20 day exponential moving average ($21230). If they succeed, the BTC/USDT exchange pair could fall to the support line in the triangle.
This will indicate that bulls will continue to buy at lower levels if the price bounces off of this level. The bulls will attempt to push the price higher than the overhead resistance of $23,363 or the 50-day simple movement average ($24,692). It could be the beginning of a new up-move if they succeed.
The bears will attempt to lower the price below $17,622 if it breaks below the support level.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. TradingView
Although the bears managed to push the price below 20EMA, a minor plus is that bulls are trying hard to defend the 50 SMA. This suggests accumulation at lower levels. The pair could reach $22,500 if bulls push the price above the 20-EMA.
Alternativly, if the price falls below the 20-EMA, it increases the chance of a break below 50-SMA. The pair could fall to $19,300 if that happens. The bulls and bears are not clearly in the lead due to the flattening 20-EMA or relative strength index (RSI), which is just below the midpoint.
Uniswap (UNI), broke above the overhead resistance of $6.08, completing a bullish inverse heads and shoulders pattern. The bears are trying to bring the price below the breakout level.
Daily chart of UNI/USDT Source: TradingView
If they do, it could suggest that the price rise above $6.08 was a bull trap. This could push the price towards the 20-day EMA (5.39). The possibility of the price breaking above $6.62 is increased if the price rebounded from this level with strength. This could give rise to momentum and allow the pair to rally towards $8.78 as its pattern target.
However, a price break below the moving averages will indicate that bullish momentum is weakening. For a few more days, the UNI/USDT currency pair may remain range-bound.
UNI/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Although the price fell below $6.08, the strong rebound from the 20-EMA indicates that buyers are willing to buy at lower levels. The buyers will attempt to push it above $6.62 again and resume the uptrend.
Contrary to popular belief, if the price falls below the 20-EMA it could indicate that the bears want to trap aggressive bulls. The price could drop to the 50 SMA. The decline could continue to $4.60 if this level cracks.
Internet Computer (ICP), rose above the 50 day SMA ($6.48) July 8, suggesting that bulls are trying to create a bottom. The bullish crossover is near and the RSI has moved into the positive zone. This suggests that the bears might be losing their grip.
Daily chart of ICP/USDT TradingView
If the price bounces off the moving averages it will indicate that the bulls have turned the level into support. This could lead to a rally to $10 psychological level, where bears may pose a challenge again.
Alternativel: If the price falls below the moving averages it will mean that bears are continuing to sell aggressively at higher prices. This could lead to the ICP/USDT pairing dropping to $5, which would be a strong support.
ICP/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Candlesticks with wicks exceeding $7 show that bears are not giving up. They continue to sell during rallies. Although the bears managed to push the price below the 20-EMA, a minor plus is that bulls bought the dip aggressively. This indicates that there is demand at lower levels.
The buyers want to push the price above the 20-EMA. The pair could rise to $6.70 if they succeed and then to $7.
Contrary to what you think, if the price falls below the overhead resistance, and slips below $6.30 the pair could slide to 50-SMA.
Related: BTC bull Michael Saylor – Ethereum is an ‘obviously security’
AAVE’s recovery surpassed the 50-day SMA ($79), on July 9, which indicates a possible change in trend. Bulls have been trying to get the upper hand. The 20-day EMA ($68), has begun to rise and the RSI is in a positive zone.
Daily chart AAVE/USDT TradingView
The AAVE/USDT pair may gain momentum if bulls can keep the price above the 50 day SMA. This could allow the pair to rally towards the psychological resistance of $100. Although this level can be a significant hurdle, if bulls stop the next decline below the 50-day SMA it will signal that buyers are back in play. The pair could attempt to rally to $120.
Contrary to the assumption, bears will continue selling rallies if the price remains below the 50-day SMA. The bears will attempt to bring the pair below 20-day EMA in an effort to trap aggressive bulls.
AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the pair breaking above $78 and completing a bullish ascending triangular pattern. Although the bears brought the price below the breakout level, it is encouraging to see that buyers are defending 20-EMA.
The price could rise and break above $83, which could give the pair momentum to rally to $93. This bullish setup has a pattern target of $110.
To invalidate this positive outlook, the bears will need to bring the price down below the 20-EMA. This could allow for a drop to the 50 SMA.
Quant (QNT has seen a sharp rise in the last few days, suggesting that there may be a bottom. After buyers drove the price to $67, momentum was gaining.
Daily chart QNT/USDT Source: TradingView
The moving averages completed a bullish crossover, and the RSI has moved into the positive zone. This indicates a potential trend change. The up-move faces a major obstacle near $90.
If the price falls below this resistance, but bounces off the 20-day EMA ($64), that will indicate that sentiment is turning positive and traders are buying dips. This could increase the chances of the price rally reaching the psychological level $100.
If the price falls further and falls below $67, this positive outlook could be invalidated.
QNT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The sellers want to halt the upward movement at $90, but the upwardly moving averages and RSI in positive territory suggest that bulls are ahead. The buyers may push the price towards $90 if the price bounces off the 20-EMA. The resumption or acceleration of the short-term upward trend could be signaled by a break and close above the resistance.
If the price falls below the 20EMA, this positive outlook could be retracted. The price could fall to the 50 SMA.
You should research all aspects of trading and investment before making any decision.
Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.