In the coming days, volatile movements in Bitcoin (BTC), and other altcoins will be a result of geopolitical news flows. Although news of Russian President Vladimir Putin placing nuclear deterrence forces at high alert may seem negative, reports of talks between warring countries could be positive and raise hopes for an end to the conflict.
After the Ukrainian government asked for crypto donations, it brought attention to the crypto community. Social media users claimed that their Ukrainian credit cards were no longer working and they couldn’t withdraw any money from their banks. They highlighted the fact that crypto was their only source of money.
Daily view of crypto market data. Source:Coin360
Some analysts believe that Bitcoin has bottomed, but Marcel Pechman, a Cointelegraph contributor, warned that the derivatives data is still inconclusive. The Ether futures data also did not paint a bullish picture.
The developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the near-term price movements. Let’s look at the charts of top five cryptocurrencies that could lead to price recovery if there is a peaceful solution to the conflict.
The Bitcoin intraday low of $34,322 on February 24 has been reclaimed by the moving averages at Feb. 26, where bears are mounting strong resistance. The bulls have not lost much ground, which is a minor plus.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView
The relative strength index (RSI), which is trying to reach the midpoint of the moving averages, is flattening out. This signals that bulls may be making a comeback. The overhead resistance of $45,821 could be reached if bulls continue to drive the price higher than the moving averages. This level is likely attracts strong selling from the bears.
Contrary to the assumption, if the price drops below the moving averages, then the pair could remain between $39,600 – $36,250 for a few more days. Breaking below the support level could lead to a drop of up to $32,900.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the price trading within a narrow range of $38,200 to $39,600. Buyers may be able to take advantage of the rising 20-exponential moving mean and the RSI just below the midpoint.
If the price breaks above $39,600, it could propel it to $41,000 and then to $42,000. This zone is likely to be dominated by bears.
If the price falls from this area but doesn’t fall below $39,600 it will indicate that sentiment has changed from buy on rallies to sell on dips. This could boost the chances of the up-move continuing.
A break and close below $38,200 would indicate aggressive selling at $39,600. This could lead to a drop of the pair towards $36,250.
After breaking the downtrend line, Terra’s LUNA token gained bullish momentum. The price rose above $70 resistance on February 25, thanks to strong buying.
Daily chart of LUNA/USDT Source: TradingView
Although the moving averages appear to be on the cusp of a bullish crossover, the RSI is close to the overbought area. This indicates that bulls are in control, but the LUNA/USDT pairing could see a slight correction or consolidation in near future.
The downside is that the bulls will likely defend the breakout at $70 and lower than the 20-day EMA ($60). The pair could rally to $90 if it bounces off any support. If that happens, the bears might again be a strong resistance. If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, this bullish view could be retracted.
LUNA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the pair trading between $47-60 for many days. The start of a new up-move was signaled by a break and close above $60 The 20-EMA is moving up, and the RSI has moved into the positive zone. This indicates buyers are in an advantage.
The possibility of the uptrend continuing increases if bulls defend the 20EMA. The price could rise to above $80, and then rally to the overhead resistance zone of $84 to $87. The pair could fall to $64 if the price drops below $70.
Avalanche’s (AVAX), has been trading within the descending channel over the past few days. Although the price fell below the moving averages on February 20, the bulls recovered the level on February 25, which indicates strong buying at lower levels.
Daily chart of AVAX/USDT Source: TradingView
The bulls will attempt to push the price towards the downtrend line in the descending channel. This level is important to monitor as a break or close above it could indicate a change in trend. The AVAX/USDT pairing could rally to $100, then start a move up to $120.
Alternativly, if the price moves down from the downtrendline, the pair may drop to the moving averages. The possibility of breaking above the channel increases if the price bounces off this level.
If the price falls below $70, or the overhead resistance, this bullish view will be invalidated.
AVAX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The overhead resistance of $83 has been the price, while the moving averages have been the support. The 20-EMA is becoming flatter and the RSI is close to the midpoint. This indicates a balance between supply/demand.
If the price falls below $76, this balance will shift in the favor of bears. The price could drop to $73, the next support. The pair could also drop to $73. If the price bounces off the current level, and breaks above $83, then momentum could be gained and the pair could rally to the overhead resistance zone of $97 to 100.
Related: Terra’s Mirror Protocol MIR recovers 40% 2 days after it crashed to a record low
Cosmos (ATOM), rebounded from strong support at $20 on February 24. This suggests that traders want to preserve the $20-$45 range.
Daily chart ATOM/USDT Source: TradingView
On Feb. 26, the price rose above the $20-day EMA ($27), and bulls are trying to keep the ATOM/USDT exchange above this level. Bulls are trying to make a comeback. The 20-day EMA has been flattening and the RSI is just below the midpoint.
The pair could rise to $37 if bulls continue to drive the price higher than the 50-day SMA ($31). This assumption is false. If the price falls below the 20-day EMA it will indicate that bears are defending overhead resistance at 50-day SMA. This could lead to a drop in the pair to $24.
ATOM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bulls have driven the price higher than the moving averages, and above the downtrend line on a 4-hour chart. The 20-EMA has begun to rise and the RSI is now in the positive territory. This indicates that bulls are on top.
If the pair continues to rise above the downtrend line the bulls will try to push the price up to $34 by clearing the $31 barrier. This assumption is incorrect. If the price falls below the 20-EMA, it could drop to the 50 SMA.
For the past few months, Fantom (FTM), has traded in a wide range between $1.24 to $3.38. Bulls are continuing to buy at this level, as the price has risen sharply from the support area on February 24.
Daily chart FTM/USDT Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($1.82) is acting as a strong support. The FTM/USDT pair could surpass the 50-day SMA ($2.18) if bulls continue to drive the price higher. Breaking above this level could open the door to a possible move up to $2.60.
Contrary to popular belief, if the price falls below this level, the pair may consolidate between the 20 day EMA and $1.24 for a few days. Watch out for $1.24 as it is the critical level to monitor on the downside. If this level breaks, the pair may start a new downtrend.
FTM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, the moving averages completed a bullish crossover, indicating that the downtrend may be ending. It will indicate that traders are buying dips if the price bounces off the moving averages.
The buyers will attempt to push the price higher than the downtrend line. The pair could rise to $2.14, and then to $2.40 if they succeed. If the pair continues to fall below the moving averages, this positive outlook will be invalidated in the short-term. This will signal that bears are active higher up.
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Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.