Bitcoin (BTC), although it may have reached $60,000 highs, calculations show that the price level will be much more important to bears than bulls.
TechDev, a popular Twitter account, highlighted historical data that has so far accurately followed Bitcoin’s highs & lows in a tweet on October 14.
What about a 80% BTC price drop to… $60,000
BTC/USD is expected to reach six figures and retake its all-time highs, but investors are already focusing on how far Bitcoin will fall following the next top.
It is now widely accepted that BTC price action follows cycles. There is a bearish phase, and then there’s a bottom at 80% of the blowoff top.
It is difficult to believe that $60,000 could be the price floor for an 80% correction in current circumstances.
TechDev found that every Bitcoin bear bottom was within a similar range using Fibonacci sequences. This accounts for the sub-$200 lows of 2014 and the $3,200 floor December 2018.
Due to Bitcoin’s cyclical transformations, the next logical Retracement has anywhere from $47,000 up to $60,000 as a target.
“I don’t think anyone cares about macro while pumping. He said that the bottom of the BTC bear market was in the 1.486-1.618 log pocket of the previous cycle.
“Suggests that the bear bottom will be at 47-60K. This is where we will land after an 80-85% fall. This is where the math becomes fun.”
BTC/USD chart annotated Source: TechDev/ Twitter
Bitcoin will be tested for $300,000 by testing it at 20% of its top price of $60,000
There are uncanny similarities to gold
Bitcoin’s momentum is tied to the expectation that US regulators will approve a form of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF).
Related: SEC to Allow Bitcoin Futures ETF Trading Next Week: Reports
Although opinions are divided on the impact of this decision, it is deemed significant by commentators and represents a real watershed in Bitcoin’s history that cannot be reversed.
Niko Jilch, an Austrian analyst and investor, referred to Paul Tudor Jones during this week’s explanation of the “excitement” over the Bitcoin ETF.
Tudor Jones previously mentioned Bitcoin’s cycles as being similar to gold in 1970s. This was just before it became a futures product and experienced a ten year bull run, followed by a 50% correction.
TechDev also notes that Gold’s 1970s rip is very similar to Bitcoin’s performance from October 2020.
#BTC/70s Gold fractal check… It’s getting absurd. pic.twitter.com/QOfJuwpceq
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) October 15, 2021
Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
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