Bitcoin (BTC), which fell sharply on April 21 despite its close correlation with U.S. equity market, which reversed course after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that a 50-basis point rate increase was “on the table”. Investors are selling risky assets as they expect aggressive central banks to reduce inflation.
Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, tweeted recently that the Nasdaq 100 was showing a formation very similar to the one it made before falling in 2000.
The NDX may experience a sharp correction if history repeats itself. This could be a negative sign for crypto markets short-term due to the close relationship between Bitcoin and NDX.
Everyday cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Due to the subdued price movement in cryptocurrencies and weak macro environment, Google searches for Bitcoin and Ethereum have been reduced. For some time, even crypto trading volumes have been on the decline. Blockchain.com reports that the April 19th, 2019 total volume of crypto trading volumes fell to $165.8 Billion. This is the lowest level since October 2020.
Is it possible that Bitcoin and altcoins will continue to slide or are they ready for a rally? Let’s look at the charts for the top 10 cryptocurrencies to see what happens.
Bitcoin broke above the 50 day simple moving average (SMA), which was $41,977 on April 21. However, the bulls were unable to sustain higher levels as shown by the candlestick’s long wick. The price moved in the opposite direction to $42,976 and settled under the 20-day exponentially moving average (EMA), ($41,478).
Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView
On April 22, the selling continued and bears attempted to lower the price to the support line for the ascending channel pattern. Bears are in control of the market, as evidenced by the downsloping 20 day EMA and negative zone relative strength index (RSI).
If the price falls below the channel support line, selling could increase and the BTC/USDT exchange pair could fall to $33,000
However, if the price rises above the current level or support line, this will indicate that bulls are buying at lower levels.
To signal strength, the bulls must push for a price increase of at least $43,000. The pair could then reach the 200-day SMA (47,965) and challenge the resistance line.
For the past few days, Ether (ETH), has been stuck between the 20 day EMA ($3,087) & the 50-day SMA ($3,003). This tight range has been held up despite numerous attempts to break it. This suggests that bulls are buying dips and bears are selling rallies.
Daily chart of ETH/USDT Source: TradingView
Sellers have a slight advantage due to the RSI in negative territory and the downsloping 20 day EMA. The possibility of a fall to the uptrend line in the ascending triangle pattern is increased if the price falls below $2,883.
At this level, the bulls will likely mount a strong defense. If the price rebounds from the uptrend line buyers will attempt to push the ETH/USDT pairs above the 20-day EMA.
The pair may rally to the 200 day SMA ($3,486) if they succeed. The ascending triangle pattern will be completed by a break and close above the level. This could lead to a trend change.
The April 20 candlestick’s long wick shows that bears are buying on rallies close to the overhead resistance of $445. BNB fell further and broke below the 50 day SMA (408) on April 21.
Daily chart BNB/USDT TradingView
Bears could sink below $391 and sell faster. The BNB/USDT pairing may fall to $350, which is a strong support. If the price recovers from this level with strength it will indicate that the pair could stay range-bound between $350 to the 200-day SMA ($471) until further notice.
If the price bounces off the support zone of the 50-day SMA ($408) to $391, then the bulls will attempt to drive the pair up to $445, and then to the SMA 200. An upward trend change could be signaled by a break or close above this level.
For the past few days, Ripple (XRP), has been stuck between $0.69- $0.91. The price recovered from the support level on April 12 but the bulls failed to clear the overhead hurdle at SMA 50 ($0.78) which indicates a lackluster demand at higher levels.
Daily chart of XRP/USDT Source: TradingView
The bears will now try to lower the XRP/USDT price pair below $0.69. The pair could fall to $0.62 if they succeed. It could also drop to $0.54 if it fails to do so. The 20-day EMA ($0.76) is beginning to decline and the RSI has moved into the negative zone. This suggests that the path to the downside is the most likely.
If the price rebounded from $0.69 with force it could indicate strong accumulation by bulls. The buyers will attempt to break the $0.80 overhead barrier and push the pair towards $0.91.
Solana (SOL), broke above the 20 day EMA ($105) April 19, but the bulls couldn’t sustain higher levels. On April 20, the bears brought the price down below the 20-day EMA.
Daily chart of SOL/USDT Source: TradingView
The selling continues and bears are trying keep the price below the 50 day SMA ($101). The SOL/USDT pair may drop to the support level of the ascending channel if that happens. This level is important to watch because it could give way at any time and lead to the strong support at $75.
Contrary to what you might think, buyers will attempt to push the pair higher than $111 if the price bounces above the current level or support line. The pair could rally to $122.
Cardano (ADA), has been consolidating in a downward trend. The price fell below the 50-day SMA ($0.97) April 21. This indicates that the bears are aggressively protecting the overhead resistance of $1.
Daily chart ADA/USDT Source: TradingView
The bears are ahead of the pack thanks to the RSI below 40 and the downsloping 20 day EMA ($0.97). The selling momentum could pick up if sellers drop the price below $0.87. This could lead to the ADA/USDT pairing dropping to $0.74. The bulls must defend this level as a potential downtrend resumption if it is broken.
To indicate that the bears are losing their grip, the bulls will need to push the price higher than $1. The pair could then climb to $1.10, and then attempt to rally to the stiff overhead resistance of $1.26.
Terra’s LUNA token fell from $100 psychological resistance on April 21. However, a minor plus is that the bulls have not allowed price to fall below the 20-day EMA (91).
Daily chart of LUNA/USDT Source: TradingView
Buyers will attempt to push the LUNA/USDT pairing above $100. The bullish momentum may pick up, and the pair could rally towards the record $119 mark. At this level, the bears will likely mount a strong defense.
However, if the price falls below the $100 overhead resistance, or the current level, then the chances of the pair breaking below the $88 support increase. The pair could fall to $75 if the price holds below this level. An eventual trend shift could be signaled by a break or close below the 200 day SMA ($68).
Related: Bitcoin following fresh US stock dives as analysis ‘expects’ BTC price will take $37.5K liquidity
Avalanche (AVAX), traded between the 20-day EMA ($80), and the uptrendline for the past few trading days. This type of trading usually results in a sharp trending movement.
Daily chart of AVAX/USDT Source: TradingView
Bears have the edge because of the downsloping 20 day EMA and negative territory RSI. The ascending triangle pattern that is currently developing will be invalidated if the price continues to fall below the uptrend line. This could cause the AVAX/USDT to drop below $65.
The buyers may also attempt to increase the price above the moving averages if the pair rises. The pair could rise to the overhead resistance zone of $99 to $104.
Dogecoin (DOGE), has been in a downtrend and is range-bound. The price fell to $0.15 on April 20, and then plunged to the 50 day SMA ($0.13) April 21. This indicates that demand is drying up at higher levels.
Daily chart of DOGE/USDT Source: TradingView
A support level is weakened when it is repeatedly tested. The bears will try to pull the DOGE/USDT currency pair back to $0.12 if the price falls below the 50-day SMA. This level is expected to be defended by the bulls. However, if support breaks down, the fall could reach $0.10.
The bulls will attempt to push the pair higher than $0.15 overhead resistance if the price bounces off the 50-day SMA. The overhead resistance at $0.17 could be reached if they succeed.
For the past few days, Polkadot has been range bound within a wide range between $16 to $23. On April 20-21, the bulls drove the price higher than the 50-day SMA (19 cents) but it could not maintain the higher levels.
Daily chart of DOT/USDT Source: TradingView
This indicates that bears may be selling during rallies. The DOT/USDT pairing could fall to $17 if the price falls below $18 as immediate support. A slight advantage for sellers is evident by the gradually declining 20-day EMA ($19), and the RSI just above the midpoint.
If bulls push the price higher than the 50-day SMA, they could attempt to rally to $23. To signal a new up-move, the bulls must clear this hurdle.
Risk is inherent in every investment or trading move. Before making any investment or trading move, you should do your research.
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Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.