Bitcoin (BTC), which was at the psychological level of $50,000, rebounded. The S&P 500 closed at a new record closing high on December 23, suggesting that panic selling due to the omicron variation is receding and that the long-awaited “Santa rally”, may have begun.
Glassnode’s on-chain analytics company shows that around 100,000 Bitcoin go from “liquid” status to “illiquid” every month. This means that the coins are being sent “with little history spending” addresses.
Everyday cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
CryptoRank data shows that total Bitcoin traded on crypto-exchanges has fallen from 9.5% of total Bitcoin supply in Oct 2020 to 6.3% in December, which is the lowest level since 2021.
Are we seeing the beginning of a new uptrend? Or is the recovery just a dead cat bounce, which will be sold into. Let’s look at the charts for the top 10 cryptocurrency coins to see what the answer is.
Bitcoin closed above the 20 day exponential moving average (EMA), ($49,720) Dec. 23, indicating that sellers might be losing their grip. A possible shift in the short-term trend is evident by the flattening 20 day EMA and relative strength index (RSI), both near the midpoint.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView
Recovery could reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $52,314 then the 50% level at $55,560. This zone is likely to be a stronghold for the bears. If the price falls from this zone, bears will attempt to resume the downtrend.
Breaking below the $45,000-$42,000 support zone could lead to a decline of up to 30%. However, buyers could drive the price to $55,560 and the BTC/USDT exchange rate to $58,686. The chances of a retest at the all-time high will increase if the price breaks and closes above this level.
Ether (ETH), broke and closed above both the descending channel, and the 20-day EMA ($4,060), Dec. 23, which are the first signs that the correction might be over.
Daily chart of ETH/USDT Source: TradingView
The bullish momentum could pick-up if buyers keep the price above the 20 day EMA. If that happens, the ETH/USDT exchange rate could reach $4,488. Although this level could act as strong resistance, bulls may push the price higher to test the all-time high of $4,868.
The 20-day EMA has slowed down and the RSI is at the midpoint. This suggests that bulls may be trying to make a comeback.
If the price drops and the channel breaks, it could indicate that the current breakout was a bear trap. The price could drop to $3.643.73. Breaking and closing below this support could lead to a fall to the SMA (200-day simple moving average) ($3,316).
Binance Coin (BNB), which has reached the downtrend line, could be a strong resistance. It is possible that the price will fall from its current level. This would indicate that traders are continuing to sell rallies.
Daily chart BNB/USDT TradingView
The bears will attempt to bring the price down to the support zone of $500 to $489.20. The price could fall to the 200-day SMA ($439) if this area collapses. If that happens, buyers will likely step in to provide support.
Contrary to what is being assumed, bulls can drive the price higher than the downtrend line and it could signal that the correction may be over. The buyers will attempt to re-establish the up-move. Resistance may be found at $575 or later at $617.
Solana (SOL), after trading near the 20-day EMA ($184 for the past few sessions, broke and closed above resistance on December 23. The 20-day EMA has sunk and the RSI is near the midpoint. This suggests a balance between supply/demand.
Daily chart of SOL/USDT Source: TradingView
If the price remains above the 20-day EMA, this balance will shift in favor of bulls. This will signal that the short-term correction phase could be over. SOL/USDT could rise first to $204.10, then to $240.
However, bears will continue to sell rallies if the price falls below $168.49. The price could drop to $148.04. The pair could then fall to $148.04.
Cardano (ADA), which jumped above the $20-day EMA ($1.37) Dec. 23, indicated that buyers are trying to make a comeback. The bears will not give up and try to bring the price below the 20-day EMA.
Daily chart ADA/USDT Source: TradingView
If they succeed, it would indicate that traders are buying rallies and the sentiment is still negative. The ADA/USDT currency pair could drop to $1.18, which is a strong support level. The pair could fall to $1 if it breaks or closes below this level.
Alternatively, if prices rebound from the 20-day EMA it will indicate that sentiment is bullish and traders are buying dips. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance of $1.87.
Ripple (XRP), which broke above the 200-day SMA ($0.94) Dec. 22, indicated that sellers might be losing their grip. The bears are trying to stop the recovery at the psychological mark of $1.
Daily chart of XRP/USDT Source: TradingView
Bulls should not allow the price below the moving average. This will signal that traders are buying the dips. This will increase the chance of the price breaking above $1. If this happens, the XRP/USDT pairing could rise to $1.20 before reaching the stiff overhead resistance of $1.41.
Contrary to popular belief, a price drop below the moving averages will indicate that traders are selling at the overhead resistance level. This could mean that the pair will remain within a wide range of $0.75 to $1.
Terra’s LUNA token dropped from $98.20 Dec. 22 to $98.20 Dec. 23, indicating that bears are defending the $100 psychological resistance. The bulls, however, had other plans. They bought the dip and resumed their up-move on December 23.
Daily chart of LUNA/USDT Source: TradingView
A buyers’ advantage is evident by the rising 20-day EMA ($74), and the RSI within the overbought area. The LUNA/USDT pair may begin the next leg if bulls can maintain the price above $100. Next target on the upside: $124.65, then $150.
If the price falls below the current level, this will indicate that bears are still a formidable challenge at $100. If the price falls below the 20-day EMA, the selling could get more intense. This could lead to the pair dropping to $50.
Related: Bitcoin Santa rally pauses at $51.5K, as funds bet on a lower-than-$60K BTC rate for January 2022
Avalanche (AVAX), has been experiencing resistance between the $119.69 Fibonacci level at 61.8% and $131.70 78.6% levels. However, a minor plus is that bulls have not lost much ground.
Daily chart of AVAX/USDT Source: TradingView
The rising 20-day EMA ($107), and the RSI positive territory indicate that the path to the upside is the most likely. The AVAX/USDT pair may retest its all-time high of $147 if bulls push the price higher than $131.70.
However, if the price drops below the overhead resistance or current level and falls below the 20-day EMA it will indicate that demand is drying up at higher levels. The price could drop to $98.14. The next stop for the pair could be $75.50 if this level fails to hold.
Polkadot, (DOT), rebounded from the strong support zone of $25 to $22.66 Dec. 20, and the bulls pushed it above the moving averages Dec. 23,
Daily chart of DOT/USDT Source: TradingView
If buyers maintain the price above moving averages, then the DOT/USDT pairing could reach $31.49, where bears might mount strong resistance.
If the price falls below this level, but bounces off the moving averages it will indicate a shift in sentiment from buy on rallies to sell on dips. This could lead to a rally up to $39.35.
If the price falls below the 20-day EMA ($28.42), this positive outlook will be invalidated. This could cause the pair to fall below the support zone.
Dogecoin (DOGE), which has rebounded from the strong support at $0.15, has risen above its 20-day EMA ($0.18). This indicates that bears could be losing their grip.
Daily chart of DOGE/USDT Source: TradingView
Buyers will attempt to push the price higher than $0.19 overhead resistance. If they succeed, then the DOGE/USDT price could rise to $0.22 and then the 200-day SMA ($0.23). This zone is likely to be defended vigorously by the bears.
The pair could drop to $0.15 if the price drops from $0.19. It will remain range bound between these levels for a few days. To begin the next leg in the downtrend, the bears must sink below $0.15 and maintain it there.
Risk is inherent in every investment or trading move. Before making any investment or trading move, you should do your research.
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Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.