No blow-off top? Bitcoin hodler metric points to ‘depressed’ BTC price

Bitcoin (BTC), investors are known for their ability “hodl” price drops, but new data suggests that they might be willing to keep going.

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, tweeted Jan. 16 that current holder behavior mirrors Bitcoin’s behavior during the lowest extreme price cycles.

Reserve Risk: Bitcoin price ‘depressed,’ hodlers hodl on

Glassnode made reference to R-Risk’s metric of Reserve Risk. He argued that the current buying and selling trends do not reflect a macro top.

It explained that low R-Risk values are typical of mid-bear and mid-bull cycles where prices are depressed but HODLing is dominant onchain.

R-Risk measures the market’s willingness to hold onto their shares for a certain period of time versus current price action.

R-Risk is currently trending down and flirting with its “depressed zone”.

Annotated chart of Bitcoin reserve risk Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

Glassnode also stated that these moves take longer than expected to complete, which is consistent with the idea that a blow-off like this halving cycle’s top could be far off.

The Reserve Risk oscillator oscillates in line with macro bull/bear markets cycles. It has clearly defined peak lines, which correspond to blow-off tops. There are also long periods of relative undervaluation in bear market bottoms as well as into early bull markets.” it summarizes.

Miners lead the “massive accumulation” trend

These data support the general impression that long-term BTC hodlers are doubling down on their convictions in the face an unexpected downtrend.

Related: Bitcoin drops 8% from its highs, as a trader demands BTC bulls claim $37.5K

According to the source, this correction period has actually lasted through 2021. Cointelegraph reported that there is no sign for old hands giving up.

CryptoQuant, a fellow analytics firm, has shown that miners who had been “massively” building up their reserves in recent months also began to keep them more consistent in January. Bitcoin could be sitting at their production costs, which could reduce profitability.

Bitcoin miner reserve chart. Source: CryptoQuant

2021's Most Anticipated Growth & Wealth-Building Opportunity

Join Thousands of Early Adopters Just Like You Who Want to Grow Capital and Truly Understand Cryptocurrency Together

Eileen Wilson

Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.

Close Bitnami banner