Bitcoin (BTC), which continued to decline into the week, clung to $40,000 support on February 18.
BTC price down debate “mostly noisy”
Many analysts predicted that BTC would fall to $30,000 next. This was largely based on technicals. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity Investments criticized the downside bias and called it “mostly noise”.
Bitcoin’s trading range has been choppy for nearly a year, fluctuating between 30k to 65k. Although the debate about whether Bitcoin should go up or down is still a popular hobby, it’s mostly just noise. The network is what matters to Bitcoin. Let’s dig deeper. pic.twitter.com/ipWumuRSya
Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity), February 17, 2022
Similarities in stock prices between Bitcoin and Apple
Global Macro’s director published a series tweets on Thursday that focused on Bitcoin’s network growth from its inception as an open-source medium of exchange. He compared the network effect of cryptocurrency to that of Apple, a tech giant worth a trillion dollars.
Timmer wrote that Apple’s prices have risen 1457x since 1996 while its price-tosales ratio has increased 30 times.”
“If growth in valuation is an expression of growth in sales (per Metcalfe’s Law), then price should rise as an exponent both metrics.”
Apple’s valuation and price since 1996. Source: Fidelity
The same metrics were applied to the Bitcoin network, which resulted in impressive growth.
Fidelity, for instance, found that Bitcoin’s value had risen 640,633x from its inception to the end of 2021. The price-to–network ratio, which is a supposed equivalent to the price-to–sales ratio, was 52. This figure has risen almost 867 times over the same time period.
Bitcoin’s value and size. Source: Fidelity
Timmer noted that 751,111 can be obtained by applying Metcalfe’s Law to calculate the square of 867. This is roughly in line with the 640.633x price gain.
The stark similarities in the rise of Bitcoin and Apple networks — based on their price and price-to-sales/network ratios — prompted Timmer to hint at long-term growth in the Bitcoin market.
The veteran analyst also compared demand curves for mobile phone subscriptions and Internet adoption to Bitcoin in order to reach similar conclusions. He concluded that Bitcoin’s future price would rise above $100,000.
Bitcoin vs. the demand model for internet and mobile phone users. Source: Fidelity
BTC setups for long-term are back in focus
Timmer was not the only analyst who predicted continued declines as corrections, which are more common in a bull market.
BTCfuel, an independent analyst in the market, shares a bullish outlook and cites a fractal that occurred in 2013.
Related: Pantera CEO: Crypto is the ‘best place to store wealth’ during Fed rate rise
Bitcoin seems to be stuck below the same moving Averages in 2022 as in 2013. BTCfuel reports that Bitcoin in 2022 appears to be below the same moving averages as it was in 2013. This is because BTC broke through the resistance areas eight years back. Accordingly, the probability of the same price action in this year’s BTCfuel report, however, is higher.
Bitcoin daily price chart 2013 vs.2022 Source: TradingView
The analyst stated, “Resumption soon.”
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