BTC price sees new $20K showdown — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC), which began the second week in September, is still trying to secure $20,000 support from bears.

The biggest cryptocurrency emerges from an unexpected weekend, with a close nearly exactly at $20,000 per week — but this significant psychological level is already struggling.

Already, the expectation of further downside in this month’s Bitcoin price fell in September. This phenomenon is known as “Septembear”, and there is little to suggest that this year will be any different.

BTC/USD fell 1.5% in September 2022. While the losses are not significant, there are many potential catalysts.

While macroeconomic turmoil is still the dominant theme in many parts of the world, Europe has been the focus of attention as the energy crisis unfolds. The euro drops to its lowest level in twenty years compared to the U.S. dollars.

Stocks are also suffering in the face a strong greenback. This leaves little room for cryptocurrencies to rise to the top.

However, the macro BTC price bottom signals are still flowing in these past weeks. This has resulted in a few analysts remaining confident about the outlook.

Cointelegraph examines five possible Bitcoin price triggers in the coming week, with $20,000 as the main focus.

BTC seals $20,000 weekly close

The weekend was easy for bitcoin bulls, as there has been very little volatility. There were two days where the price fluctuated around $20,000.

This meant that the existing price forecasts were unaffected, and even the weekly close left the market guessing.

This was in the form of Bitstamp’s almost $20,000, followed by downward pressure in the first hour of the new week, according to data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Traders expected a retest at lower levels than June’s $17600. However, they saw little reason for them to change their outlook.

Let me know when you can reclaim 20.7k to go on vacation. Thanks frens $BTC https://t.co/biYiFrDm4t
CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto September 4, 2022

Il Capo of Crypto, a popular trader, reiterated his plans for a short squeeze to $23,000 and then a reversal with $16,000 as the potential floor.

Cheds, a fellow trader, confirmed that the 4-hour chart “continues in range” after rebounding from range lows into a weekly close.

TMV Crypto’s latest update revealed a downside bias in the same timeframes. This highlights relative strength index (RSI), data.

“H4 RSI bearish at the moment. It would cost $btc to sweep Aug Lows, and close to July lows of 18777 to lose 19700,” it said.

“If the bulls can turn 19986.5 levels of H4 support, they will be looking to long to 20.8.”

Material Indicators data showed that bulls were “fighting” for $20,000 at close. New bid support was also entering the Binance order books immediately below.

“Be careful. “This week is going to get spicy,” the tweet that followed concluded after the close.

Europe’s energy crisis shakes the macro stage

The Federal Reserve will be stepping down this week in macro markets. However, important economic data for August (the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is due on Sep. 13.

However, there is no way for risk asset traders not to be volatile as the events in Europe provide a new venue for volatility.

The euro has fallen to below $0.99 as of September 5, its lowest trading rate against the U.S. Dollar since September 2002.

EUR/USD 1-hour candle charts TradingView

Instabilities in the energy markets are responsible for the weakness. Russia, which had been scheduled to reopen Nord Stream 1’s gas pipeline this weekend, abruptly changed its mind over maintenance issues. Gas supplies are now suspended indefinitely.

This was in response to news that the European Union planned to place a price limit on Russian energy, in line with the G7. Russia responded by threatening to stop all energy imports.

Gas markets are now soaring once again as week begins, after previously falling from records highs.

European Gas rises by as high as 35% because #Russia keeps Nord Stream closed. Up 21% pic.twitter.com/2SVRbOijKX
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 5, 2022

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX derivatives giant BitMEX was certain that the only way to the euro was down for him.

Hayes reiterated a previous hypothesis in a blog post earlier in the year and described the euro entering a “doom loop” over the weekend.

“Either: 1. To bring down the dollar’s value and to help Europe pay its energy import bills, USD liquidity rises. Europe and Russia reach a Detente. He wrote that he thought the third option was to turn off residential heating and industry.”

This is how severe the crisis has become that PlanB, the creator of Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin price model, suggested that a buy-the-dip opportunity should be second only to basic needs, even though BTC/USD is nearing two-year lows.

He tweeted last week, “People should not have to choose between gas and food,”

Two-decade highs for the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar’s strength continues to be a persistent headwind for crypto and other risk assets, as it was last week.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), has a long tradition of reaching twenty-year highs through 2022. September is no exception to this trend.

DXY is now at 110, the highest level since June 2002. The euro is just one of many fiat casualties from the bull run.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-month candle chart. Source: TradingView

Scott Melker, a popular trader and podcast host who is also known as “The Wolf of All Streets”, summarized the weekend.

“$DXY currently breaks multi-decade resistance at 110. Roman, a popular trader, said that $BTC was consolidating and broke its daily bear flag two weeks ago.

“I find it difficult to see a bullish case here, if the DXY keeps going. I anticipate a stock and crypto dump.”

$DXY fresh local highs https://t.co/jIFEdQyp97 pic.twitter.com/XljPW18vdP
— Cheds (@BigCheds September 4, 2022

Cheds uploaded a DXY Chart showing Bollinger Bands action requiring continued volatility on daily timespans.

Hodlers keep growing in strength

Long-term holders (LTHs), in classic bear market fashion, are trying to weather the BTC price storm and setting local records.

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics company, has revealed that coins purchased less than a year ago are becoming increasingly dormant.

Despite unrealized losses buyers are refusing capitulation

This has resulted in 65.78% being the highest ever percentage of BTC supply that is now sitting in its wallet for at least a year.

Glassnode also shows that 2022 has seen a significant steepening in the one-year or more hodl trajectory. This indicates resolve strengthening among the majority LTHs.

Chart showing Bitcoin supply at % for 1 year or more. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

A complementary metric, which measures the number of coins that are being hodled, or removed from circulation, also reached its highest point in nearly two years.

The total amount of hodled and lost coins is now 7,464,791 BTC.

Chart of Bitcoin lost or hodled. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

Whalemap, another monitoring resource, noted last week that the Bitcoin spot market price was below the total realized price for coins aged between one and two.

“There have been only three times in $BTC’s history that it has fallen below the realized price of 1-2 year holders. The Whalemap team stated that this is now the third.

Annotated chart of the Bitcoin realized price. Source: Whalemap/Twitter

The aggregate price at which one particular cohort of Bitcoins last traded is called the real price. The current Bitcoin realized price is around $21,600.

Six-week lows in sentiment

It seems like the crypto market has retraced its bullish phase that began in July’s second half.

Related: Are We There Yet? Analysts discuss factors that affect the BTC price

This sentiment is best expressed by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. It was just 20/100 this weekend.

The Index is now back in the “extreme Fear” zone. It has more than half its previous three-weeks, which demonstrates the severity of market participants’ sudden cold feet.

On July 18, 20/100 was last seen.

Screenshot: Crypto Fear and Greed Index Source: Alternative.me

PlanB, however, described current sentiment at the end of the last month as historically fearful, based on the difference between spot and realized prices.

This won’t stay blue forever. This will not stay blue forever. pic.twitter.com/gTh6hMg70P
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD), August 29, 2022

“IMO everyone and their mother are expecting a global mega recession and all market collapses, i.e. It must all be priced in. “The slightest sign of recovery will pump the markets,” he said in related comments.

com. You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.

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Eileen Wilson

Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.

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