Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC), will see a rebound in the second quarter (2H) 2022.
McGlone shared his thoughts with his 48,100 followers on Twitter on July 6. He saw positive signs in data Bloomberg’s Galaxy Crypto Index and the 50-week- and 100-week moving Averages of BTC’s Price. McGlone suggested that current indicators show similar signs to 2018’s bottom of the bear markets, which was preceded by a strong rebound in 2019’s first half.
“With the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index approaching a similar drawdown to the 2018 bottom, and Bitcoin’s discount at its 50- and 100 week moving averages similar past foundations that are similar to previous foundations, risk and reward are tilted toward responsive investors in the 2H.”
The BCGI measures the performance of crypto assets with the greatest market capitalization to provide a broad view of the overall market performance. Moving averages show the average price for an asset over a specified time period, such as 50 days or 100 days.
According to Coingecko data, Crypto Winter 2018 saw a difficult time for BTC. The price plummeted from $16,000 in January to $3,200 mid-December. Despite the chaos, BTC recovered to $13,000 in late June.
McGlone predicted in a follow-up post that BTC was either on track to be “one of the greatest bull market in history at an extremely discounted price to begin 2H” or that data shows that investors are being scared away by the fact that the crypto market is failing.
He stated that his bias was “that” Bitcoin adoption is more likely than not to continue growing.”
#Bitcoin may be the most successful bull market in history, with a very low price to start 2H. The crypto could be a failed experiment that is being made redundant like #crudeoil. Our bias is Bitcoin adoption is more likely to continue rising pic.twitter.com/qtLRR6isXF
Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11), July 6, 2022
McGlone compared the washout in 1H with the “2000-02’s burst Internet bubble”, which saw many companies fail but also opened the door for major companies such as Amazon and eBay to flourish.
The fact that the bearish conditions are largely due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish Monetary Policy and inflation reeling attempts via a series interest rate increases is worth considering.
BTC and the entire crypto market have suffered many macro factors in 2022. These include the Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine, global regulation, and high unemployment rates. The implosion of crypto projects and companies has made sentiment even more bearish.
Related: US Government bans crypto owners from working on US Government’s crypto policies
McGlone stated that if the stock markets continue to fall at a “similar velocity in 1H”, then the Fed’s latest 75 basis point rate increase in June could be the final one of the year. This is because the government is trying to avoid a recession. This could lead to a rebound across asset classes as investors reenter the market.
If stocks continue to fall at the same rate as in 1H then the June 75 bps increase may not be necessary. https://t.co/zHtLfuYoZg
Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11), July 4, 2022
Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
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