Bitcoin repeats key bear market move as $19K becomes key BTC price zone

New data shows that Bitcoin (BTC), which holds $19,000, could be more valuable than traders think.

ARK Invest, an investment management company, highlighted a continuing battle to defend Bitcoin’s investor cost base in the latest edition of “The Bitcoin Monthly” its monthly report series.

Investors in Bitcoin buoys market

The current Bitcoin price action is characterised by volatile movements within a clearly defined range of $4,000 to $6,000 across.

This range has held since June and contains what immediately standsout as a focal point — prior halving cycle’s all-time high at $20,000.

BTC/USD has been crossing this threshold often, but traders have long sought other lines of sight when it comes to finding new trends for the pair.

It is $19,000 for ARK and William Clemente (reflexivity research co-founder), which could be used as significant support.

This is because Bitcoin’s investor cost basis — the total price at which Bitcoin supply was purchased, minus any portion owned by miners — causes this.

“For most September, bitcoin traded between two historic levels: its 200-week moving mean ($23,500 as resistance) and its investor cost basis ($19,000 as support”), ARK explained.

The current BTC price is $19,000. This is the level at which Bitcoin investors could suffer significant losses if it is violated.

The report stated that “as strong holder behaviour battles a weak micro environment, resolutions to either side will play an important role in bitcoin’s short- and mid-term performance.”

Screenshot: Bitcoin 200-week moving mean vs. investor costs basis chart (screenshot). Source: ARK Invest

Cointelegraph reported this week that analysts are closely monitoring the current supply to see if there is a decline in overall supply.

This was the case in previous bear markets. It always exceeded 60% before a price bottom hit. They concluded that the market will continue to fall in 2022.

Echoing 2018 behavior of investors are the investor cohorts

Additional figures showing the losses of long term holders (LTHs), paint a similar picture by mid-September. BTC price action could reach $14,000 before echoing previous bear market bottoms.

Related: Bitcoin still targets $14K, warns DXY trader due to ‘parabola break’

ARK continued by noting that the cost basis for LTHs and short term holders (STHs), had crossed over since 2018, which was the year t experienced the macro bottom at $3,100 in the late Q4.

An STH can be defined as an entity that holds BTC for upto 155 days. LTHs may make up investments for longer periods.

The report stated that “The short-term-holder’s (STH) cost basis crossed below the long-term-holder cost basis (LTH), a signal typically correlated with high conviction market bottoms.”

This cross is likely to be a sign that short-term holders have given up or are maturing into long-term holders.

Screenshot of the Bitcoin LTH and STH cost basis chart. Source: ARK Investcom. You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.

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Eileen Wilson

Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.

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