Based on the indicator that indicated the 2015 and 2018 bear markets bottoms, Bitcoin (BTC), could see a huge price recovery in the next few months.
What is the bottom indicator of the Bitcoin Pi Cycle?
The indicator is called “Pi Cycle bottom” and includes a simple moving average (SMA), 471-day exponential moving averages (EMA) and a 150-period exponentialmoving average (EMA). To predict the bottom of the underlying market, the result is multiplied with 0.745.
It is notable that each time the 150-period EMA falls below the 471period SMA it marks the end of a Bitcoin bearish market.
In 2015, for instance, the cross-over coincided with Bitcoin hitting a low of $160 in January 2015. This was followed by a nearly 12,000% bull market toward $20,000 in December 2017.
BTC/USD weekly chart with ‘picycle bottom’ indicator Source: TradingView
The 2018 bear cycle ended with the 150-471 MA crossover, which marked the end of the 2018. It was also the end of a 2,000% price rise — from $3,200 in December 2018, to $69,000 in November 2021.
Only the third time in human history
Bitcoin’s 150-day EMA (at $22,332 as per July 12th) will close below its 471 day EMA (at $30,208), this week. This marks the third Pi Cycle bottom in Bitcoin’s history.
BTC/USD Weekly Price Chart – The next possible cycle bottom. Source: TradingView
After a 75% price correction from $69,000, Bitcoin is now at $20,000 and appears to be crossing over.
Related: Bitcoin price could bottom at $15.5K, if it retests its lifetime historical support level
BTC/USD has been trading at the same level for nearly a month. The latest MLIV Pulse survey found that the price of Bitcoin is more likely to drop towards $10,000 than rebound towards $30,000.
These fears are a result of the ongoing chaos in crypto markets caused by the failures of several prominent companies.
MLIV Pulse Survey results about Bitcoin’s next trend. Source: Bloomberg
Investors are also scared by hawkish central banks policies, which focus on removing excess money from the economy.
If the bottom fractal is met, Bitcoin could recover to $30,000 or more. As shown in the chart, the interim upside target is the 0.236 Fib line on the Fibonacci Retracement graph. It runs from the $69,000-swing high down to the $17,000 low.
com. You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.
Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.