Research claims that Bitcoin (BTC), which is currently at its lowest point, could see a “cycle bottom” in 2018. It could fall over 50% from its current levels.
Venturefounder, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant’s Twitter thread, predicted that 2022 would be Bitcoin’s year of “capitulate”
Bitcoin has the “best 3-year ROI” ever
Venturefounder stated that this year, based on historical patterns regarding Bitcoin’s halving cycles and other indicators, should be the bearish-black sheep in the current four-year cycle.
BTC/USD will find a macro floor in 2022 just like 2018 and its bear markets. If you subtract previous dips from all-time highs and multiply them by 1,4000 to 2,1,000, it could be anywhere between $14,000 to $21,000
One tweet stated that “670 days remain before the next Bitcoin halving,” and added:
“BTC will collapse in 670 days and hit bottom ($14-21k) in the next 6 month. Then, it will chop around in $28-40k most of 2023, and then be back at $40k by the next halving.”
Although this prognosis is not for bulls, it would be a precedent. Bitcoin reached $3,100 in December 2018 and then recovered to $13,800 seven month later, before falling back to $3,600 at its March 2020 lows.
The 2019 local record was set at $20,000.
Venturefounder believes that this level could become yet another feature of the spot prices chart. Venturefounder believes that those who are willing to ride the wave of investment — even now — will still be on the right side.
In other words, Bitcoin can be bought from now to the next six-12 months. He added that it was “probably the best 3-year ROI” he has ever seen.
“We are not at THE bottom of the cycle, but we are within the range for BTC cycle bottoms. This is the best way to time market cycles.
Bottom forecasts continue to come
Others have already calculated the bottom range for $14,000 and close to it.
Related: “Mega bullish signal” or “real breakdown?” 5 things you should know about Bitcoin this week
This price would be a drop of approximately 80% from the $69,000 record high. It is also equivalent to the percentage low for the previous cycle.
According to data from Glassnode, current levels of $31,000 are still a small drawdown.
BTC/USD Drawdowns from All-Time Highs Chart. Source: Glassnode
Rekt Capital, a fellow analyst, calculated last month a potential target value of $15,500 if BTC/USD drops below its 200-week moving mean.
Sellers might have difficulty driving the market down so far. MicroStrategy, the largest BTC corporate Treasury, has committed to buying into any cascade that reaches $20,000
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX trading giant, confirmed his interest in BTC at $25,000
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