The Bitcoin (BTC), four-year halving period and its effect on the long-term value of the top cryptocurrency is one of the most hotly debated topics in the crypto community.
The Bitcoin price did not reach the long-predicted $100,000 mark in 2021, and many crypto analysts are now wondering what the future holds for the cryptocurrency market.
BTC’s price is currently below $40,000, and technical analysis metrics indicate that it is more likely that the BTC price will fall further than a recovery to $40,000-$45,000 range. Let’s see what analysts think about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin could reach its lowest point in November or December
In a Twitter thread, crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter User “Wolves of Crypto” discussed the theory of the four-year cycles. His analysis indicated that the “most probable bear market bottom” for Bitcoin would be in November/December 2022.
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter
This projection assumes that $68,789 was the highest BTC price on November 10, 2021, and that the market is currently in the corrective period that is typically observed after a cycle top.
According to the analyst,
“The 200-week SMA is the proven bear market bottom indicator for Bitcoin. Therefore, the bottom will most likely be at $24,000.”
If this scenario plays out, BTC’s price will rise to new highs sometime in August or September 2023.
Bitcoin seems a little undervalued in this country
Willy Woo, an independent analyst of the market, suggested that BTC might reach its bottom before 2022. He posted the following chart that suggests that the “Orange Coin seems a little undervalued”
High liquid supply shock oscillator Source: Twitter
The “Highly Liquid Shock” metric measures on-chain demand, supply, and shows the relative movement in standard deviations to the long-term average.
The chart shows that every time the oscillator dropped below the current reading, BTC prices began a sharp rally shortly afterwards.
“It’s not a bad idea for investors to wait for law of mean reversion” to come out.
Related: Bitcoin is down 40% from its ATH but analysts on-chain say it’s starting to bottom out’
The Bitcoin price is at a low mid-term level
Many analysts believe BTC may be within an optimal accumulation range. This is a point that Philip Swift, crypto market analyst, has touched upon. Swift claims that the AASI (active address sentiment indicator) indicates that BTC is in an area of buy.
Sentiment indicator for active addresses. Source: Twitter
Swift claims that the AASI is currently in the “green zone.” This suggests that the “Bitcoin Price Change is at a reasonable level relative to active Address Change.”
This tool is able to signal a low mid-term with a high hit rate in both bull and bear markets.
A look at the AASI readings from previous years shows that BTC prices were similar to the current levels. They also reached their lowest point at the same time, and then continued to rise over the next weeks and months.
It appears that Bitcoin’s price action is generally in line with the established four-year cycle. However, this has been a smaller percentage increase than expected.
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Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
My Name is Eileen Wilson with more than 5 years of experience in the Stock market industry, I am energetic about Technology news, started my career as an author then, later climbing my way up towards success into senior positions. I can consider myself as the backbone behind the success and growth of topmagazinewire.com with a dream to expand the reach out of the industry on a global scale. I am also a contributor and an editor of the Technology and Energy category. I experienced a critical analysis of companies and extracted the most noteworthy information for our vibrant investor network.