Bitcoin (BTC), which hit a record high of $67,000 last Wednesday, has the potential to reach $100,000 by the end this year.
PlanB, who is the inventor of the stock-to-flow model (S2F), called Bitcoin’s price movement from the $60,000 level the “2nd Leg” of what looked like a long-term bullish market.
#bitcoin bull market, 2nd leg has started pic.twitter.com/N9H2QF7SDe
— October 26, 2021, PlanB (@100trillionUSD).
The pseudonymous analyst used S2F to explain that he expects Bitcoin will continue its climb higher, reaching $100,000-135,000 by the end this year.
According to the price projection model, Bitcoin’s value will continue growing at least to $288,000 per token because of “halving,” which occurs every four years and reduces BTC’s issuance rate half-way against its 21 million supply limit.
Bitcoin after 2016, 2016, and 2020 halves. Source: PlanB
Bitcoin has been subject to three halvings in the past, in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
Each event reduced the new cryptocurrency supply rate by 50%. This was followed by significant increases in BTC prices. The BTC price rose by more than 10,000% and 2,960% respectively after the two previous halvings.
The price jumped from $8,787 up to $66,999 after the third halving, which was a 6667.50% increase. S2F has so far been fairly accurate in forecasting Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The chart below shows this. Bulls have higher hopes that Bitcoin will rise post-halving to the $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin S2F as at Oct. 26. Source: PlanB
PlanB stated earlier this year that Bitcoin would hit $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December. They also noted that the only thing stopping the cryptocurrency reaching a six-digit price is “a black Swan event”, which the market hasn’t seen in the past decade.
A 80% crash occurs later
Bitcoin will see significant corrections despite the fact that it is projected to be high in the future, despite the price projections. PlanB believes that the next crash will wipe out at least 80% of Bitcoin’s market capital, using the same S2F model.
Related: COVID-19 vaccine to spark Bitcoin ‘crash — Rich Dad, Poor Dad author
“Everybody hopes for the supercycle or the ‘hyperbitcoinization’ to start right now and that we do not have a big crash after next all-time highs,” the analyst told Unchained, adding.
“As much I wish that we don’t see that crash,” I believe. I believe we will be managed by greed now and fear later… and another minus 80% once we reach a few hundred thousand dollars.
Daily chart of BTC/USD price. Source: TradingView
However, not everyone believes the next correction will prove to be as severe as the ones before. Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead stated in October that the next Bitcoin price decline would be less than 80 percent. He cited a steady drop in selling sentiment following each halving cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC), which experienced a 53% increase in October, reached a record high of $67,000 last week. The new highs led to traders profit-taking, which resulted in retests at the $60,000 support level.
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