An “favorite Bitcoin (BTC), price signal” could soon turn bullish — and it has always been upward, data shows.
Preston Pysh, podcast host, noted that the Long-Term and Short-Term Holder Realized Prices Ratio (LTHSTHRPR) is primed to print a bull banner.
Chart suggests bulls will return
Although it may sound a bit sloppy, LTHSTHR-RPR is one the most accurate indicators of Bitcoin’s price. Dylan LeClair (organizer of Bitcoin 2021 conference) was the one who created it. He confirmed his bullishness using its readings from late September.
He wrote, “TLDR”: The lower the Short Term:Long-Term Realized price Ratio, the more bullish he will be,” in an explanation Twitter thread.
“All bears will perish in the end.”
Chart of Bitcoin LTHSTHR-RPR. Source: Preston Pysh/Twitter
With the indicator trending lower for several months now, it’s high time for a rebirth. BTC/USD has always been a beneficiary of this trend.
Under the hood, LTHSTHRPR displays the cost basis for long-term and short-term holders. Glassnode defines a long-term holder as an address holdings coin that has not moved in the last 155 days.
LeClair explained that when the STH-LTH Realized Prices Ratio is rising, it means that LTH cost base is increasing relative to STH cost basis and vice versa.
When the marginal seller exhausts, Bitcoin rises. You will see this when the marginal seller is exhausted. This is why the cost basis for LTHs remains stagnant during bull runs. However, the cost basis for STHs (many who are new market participants) explodes – there simply are not enough coins.
LTH cost basis is still not being eclipsed by STH cost base — this will bring an end to the current downtrend.
The narrative continues with “Up only”
Cointelegraph reported that LTHSTHRPR is only one of a variety of BTC price metrics that have helped the bulls over recent weeks.
Related: Bitcoin Weekly Highs — 5 Things to Watch This Week
All indicators, from on-chain metrics to network basics and pure math, suggest that Bitcoin has more upside — which is widely expected starting in Q4 after the year’s halving event.
Analysts are still monitoring the market for exits. In the short-term, however, analysts are not anticipating that this week’s launch of an exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will have a significant impact on the market.
Eileen Wilson –Technology and Energy
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